{"id":61303,"date":"2026-01-06T01:59:59","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T01:59:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.skydivemag.com\/new\/?p=61303"},"modified":"2026-01-13T02:30:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T02:30:57","slug":"the-dunning-kruger-effect-in-skydiving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.skydivemag.com\/new\/the-dunning-kruger-effect-in-skydiving\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Skydiving"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Why confidence can grow faster than competence, and why humility matters when lives are on the line<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019ve been in the sport long enough, you\u2019ll have seen it, or maybe even been there yourself: the jumper with 300 jumps who believes they\u2019ve got it all figured out. They start organising big-ways, canopy coaching, or leading tracking jumps with more confidence than caution. And worse, they\u2019re often listened to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This, my friends, is the Dunning-Kruger Effect at work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know this from firsthand experience. I was looking through old photos and videos from the early 2000s and found footage of myself leading tracking jumps in the USA. Happy to report the jumps all went without incident, which was purely luck, not judgement. But I looked at a twenty-something version of myself, looking confident, in charge, and knowledgeable. And I know, looking at that guy, that I had very little idea of what I was actually doing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a well-documented cognitive bias where people with low ability or experience in a domain overestimate their own competence. Essentially, you don\u2019t know what you don\u2019t know, and that ignorance can be dangerously blinding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In skydiving, where risk is ever-present and experience is earned, this bias doesn\u2019t just lead to awkward moments or bruised egos. It leads to bad decisions. It leads to injuries. It leads to fatalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Photos by Coell Studios <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

When Confidence Outpaces Competence<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s natural to feel a surge of confidence once the basics click \u2014 when you\u2019ve nailed a few jumps, got your FS in order, or your freefly feels \u201cstable,\u201d maybe landed a couple of nice landings. At that stage, you\u2019re no longer the scared newbie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here\u2019s the trap: confidence increases far quicker than competence. You\u2019ve got just enough knowledge to think you\u2019re in control, but not enough to recognise how much you\u2019re still missing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When newer jumpers start coaching or organising without sufficient depth of knowledge, they put others at risk. Organising a jump isn\u2019t about having a good idea or being popular on the DZ. It\u2019s about understanding airspace, fall rates, group dynamics, emergency procedures, terrain considerations, break-off planning, canopy patterns and how all<\/em> of those change depending on who\u2019s on the jump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And coaching? Coaching isn\u2019t just about \u201ctelling someone what worked for you.\u201d It\u2019s about understanding human learning, biomechanics, skydiving-specific psychology, and error management. That\u2019s why real coaching certifications exist and why being a good flyer doesn\u2019t automatically make you a good coach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Social Media and the Illusion of Expertise<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

We now live in a world where a 500-jump skydiver can have half a million followers on social media. Likes and views can create the illusion of credibility. And for lower-experience skydivers looking for inspiration or guidance, that illusion can be dangerously convincing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I often muse at the groovy kids in all the new gear, socks pulled up, stickers everywhere. They look the part until you see them fly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ego creeps in quietly. You start believing your own hype. You get asked to lead jumps. You start \u201ccoaching\u201d skills you haven\u2019t mastered. Before long, you\u2019ve created a platform where you\u2019re teaching but without the foundation of true knowledge or experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then one day, something goes wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it always does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Experience Actually Looks Like<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The most experienced instructors, organisers, and examiners I\u2019ve worked with all share one trait: humility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They know that skydiving doesn\u2019t care how good you think you are. They remember their close calls. They ask questions. They seek feedback. They surround themselves with peers who hold them accountable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also understand that coaching and organising aren\u2019t just about being good at flying, they\u2019re about responsibility. You\u2019re taking lives into your hands, quite literally. That\u2019s not something to take lightly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Photo by Coell Studios<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Advice for Newer Coaches and Organisers<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re a newer coach or organiser, here\u2019s what I\u2019d encourage:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay Curious<\/strong>
<\/strong> The more you learn, the more you\u2019ll realise how much you don\u2019t know. That\u2019s a good thing. Let it humble you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get Mentored<\/strong>
<\/strong> Find experienced instructors or organisers you trust and ask to shadow them. Don\u2019t just copy what they do \u2014 understand why<\/em> they do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seek Qualifications, Not Clout<\/strong>
<\/strong> If you want to coach, get certified. If you want to organise, start small and grow under supervision. British Skydiving has clear progression paths for a reason, as do many other associations around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Own Your Limits
<\/strong> It\u2019s okay to say, \u201cI\u2019m not experienced enough to run that jump.\u201d That kind of honesty earns a lot of respect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t Confuse Flying Skills With Coaching Ability<\/strong>
<\/strong> Just because you can do it doesn\u2019t mean you can teach it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ask yourself realistically:<\/p>\n\n\n\n